JANUARY 1910 SEINE FLOOD SCENARIO

The floods of June 2016 and January 2018 served as reminders of how Paris and Ile-de-France are exposed to flood risk. Even today, the Seine flood of 1910 is considered the reference in terms of floods in the Ile-de-France for all those involved in natural risk prevention. It was the last flood that surpassed the 8 meter mark in Paris after the floods of 1658 and 1740, It may also be considered one of the first disasters to have put to the test the resilience of an entire city. Indeed, at the beginning of the 20th century, Paris was a major global center and the Universal Exposition of 1900 crowned it the capital of industrial and technological progress...

€ 13 bThe damage caused by this flood would therefore amount to approximately € 13 b (with a high level of incertitude, due in particular to the presence of business interruption risk, converted to an interval of confidence of between € 8.8 and 23.9 b).

94 / 92 / 75The most affected departments would include the Val-de-Marne, the Hauts-de-Seine and Paris. These damages are limited to the scope of claims covered by the Natural Disaster compensation scheme.

SCENARIO OF THE 1887 EARTHQUAKE AT NICE, SOUTHERN FRANCE

The earthquake scenario under analysis was based on the Ligure earthquake of February 23, 1887 the epicenter of which was located in the Gulf of Genoa near the French-Italian border. The quake was felt up to 600 kilometers away and caused significant damage from Nice to Menton as well as in all of the back country of the present-day Alpes-Maritimes department. The macro-seismic intensity affecting the French municipalities was estimated at VIII-IX (MSK 64)...

600 kmThe quake was felt up to 600 kilometers away.

2001The earthquake scenario is based on the occurrence of an earthquake of a magnitude of Mw=6.3 located 8 km below the surface and approximately 30 km southeast of Nice. Furthermore, the earthquake is located along an active structure that generated a tremor which was widely felt in Nice in 2001.

€ 11 to 14 bDamages would be assessed at between € 11 and 14 b.

DROUGHT OF 1976 SCENARIO

The drought of 1976 affected a large portion of the French mainland and the northern half in particular. It was characterized by low levels of precipitation in the period December 1975 to August 1976. This was accompanied by particularly high temperatures throughout the summer. The drought had disastrous effects on agricultural production and posed significant water supply problems...

50 to 60%In the regions of Brittany, Normandy, Picardy and Champagne, rainfall deficiency was approximately 50 to 60%.

20,6°CThe period average was 3° C above the average for the same periods between 1901 and -2001. In June, the average recorded at the Paris-Montsouris weather station was 20.6° C compared to the usual 16.7° C.

€ 820 m to 1.2 bUsing its software models, CCR estimated the impact that a drought of this magnitude would have if it were to reoccur today. The damages would be between € 820 m and 1.2 b.

1987 MARINE SUBMERSION SCENARIO

The storm that occurred in Brittany and Normandy the night of October 15 to 16, 1987 was one of the most violent storms to strike France in the 20th century. The situation occurred at a time when the tidal coefficient was relatively low, between 25 and 26, and if otherwise significant flooding would have occurred...

978 hPaThis event was characterized by extremely low atmospheric pressure (978 hPa).

220 km/hWind gusts reached 220 km/h. The conditions matched those of a hurricane of category 2 intensity on the Saphir-Simpson scale.

€ 3.3 bThe amount of property damage reached 3.3 billion euros for the market in 2017.